By Central Intelligence Agency (CIA),Center for the Study of Intelligence,Rob Johnston
He reaches these conclusions throughout the cautious strategies of an anthropologist—conducting actually countless numbers of interviews and staring at and collaborating in dozens of labor teams in intelligence analysis—and so that they can't simply be brushed aside as mere opinion, nonetheless much less because the sour mutterings of these who've misplaced out within the bureaucratic wars. His findings represent not only a robust indictment of how American intelligence plays research, but in addition, and fortunately, a consultant for a way to do better.
Johnston reveals no baseline average analytic procedure. in its place, the most typical perform is to behavior constrained brainstorming at the foundation of earlier research, therefore generating a bias towards confirming previous perspectives. The validating of knowledge is questionable—for example, the Directorate of Operations' (DO) "cleaning" of undercover agent studies does not enable checking out in their validity—reinforcing the tendency to appear for facts that confirms, now not refutes, triumphing hypotheses. the method is probability averse, with enormous managerial conservatism. there's even more emphasis on warding off blunders than on imagining surprises. The analytic method is pushed through present intelligence, specially the CIA's crown jewel analytic product, the President's day-by-day short (PDB), that can be caricatured as "CNN plus secrets." Johnston does not positioned it relatively that method, however the Intelligence neighborhood does extra reporting than in-depth analysis.
None of the analytic organizations is familiar with a lot in regards to the analytic options of the others. In all, there has a tendency to be even more emphasis on writing and communique abilities than on analytic tools. education is pushed extra via the druthers of person analysts than through any strategic view of the companies and what they wish. so much education is on-the-job.
Johnston identifies the wishes for research of not less than 3 sorts of consumers—cops, spies, and infantrymen. the wishes of these shoppers produce no less than 3 special sorts of intelligence—investigative or operational, strategic, and tactical.
The examine indicates the necessity for critical learn of analytic equipment throughout all 3, guided by means of expert methodologists. Analysts must have many extra possibilities to do fieldwork out of the country. they need to additionally flow even more frequently around the employer "stovepipes" they now inhabit. those pursuits might supply them a richer feel for the way different businesses do analysis.
CHAPTER ONE - Definitions * bankruptcy - Findings * bankruptcy 3 - A Taxonomy of Intelligence Variables * bankruptcy 4 - checking out the Intelligence Cycle via platforms Modeling and Simulation * bankruptcy 5 - Integrating Methodologists into groups of specialists * bankruptcy SIX - The query of overseas Cultures: battling Ethnocentrism in Intelligence research * bankruptcy SEVEN - educational know-how: Effectiveness and Implications for the Intelligence group * bankruptcy 8 - Organizational tradition: Anticipatory Socialization and Intelligence Analysts * bankruptcy 9 - innovations: step one: spotting A primary challenge * bankruptcy TEN - Survey technique * bankruptcy 11 - Q-Sort technique * bankruptcy TWELVE - The "File-Drawer" challenge and Calculation of impression Size
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Analytic Culture in the U.S. Intelligence Community: An Ethnographic Study - Working as an Intelligence Analyst, Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) Intelligence Papers by Central Intelligence Agency (CIA),Center for the Study of Intelligence,Rob Johnston